Abstract
The Brazilian hydrothermal system consists of a completely linked network of 143 medium and large hydropower plants, 888 small hydropower plants, and 1602 thermal and 82 wind power plants, with a total installed capacity of 128,570 MW. The hydropower plants produce, on average, 91% of the total electricity consumed in the country, while the complementary thermal system is dispatched mainly during periods of drought. In our previous studies, we developed a nonlinear programming model, HIDROTERM, to optimize the management and operation of the hydrothermal system, considering individual hydropower plants, thermal generation and exchange, multiple uses of the water, and system expansion. The model is deterministic. In this paper, we develop a new version of HIDROTERM to incorporate the stochasticity of the inflows in the formulation. Additionally, hourly load variation is represented by three levels: peak, base, and low. The proposed approach is based on a two-stage stochastic programming with recourse. In the first stage (first time period) the system passes from its initial state to the final state based on deterministic inflow forecasts. From the second time period on (the second stage), the state of the system branches out according to inflow scenarios. The branching can be scaled up gradually until the end of the planning horizon. New developments are made in the formulation, interface, database and the underlying simulation model. The newly developed integrated decision support system is being tested on the entire Brazilian hydrothermal system. 1 Assistant Professor, University of Sao Paulo; e-mail: rczambon@usp.br; ASCE/EWRI Member 2 Professor, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil; e-mail: mtbarros@usp.br; ASCE Member 3 Professor, University of Campinas; e-mail: franco@fec.unicamp.br 4 Assistant Professor, University of Campinas; e-mail: francato@fec.unicamp.br 5 Consulting Engineer; e-mail: jelopes1@gmail.com 6 Engineer, Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo; e-mail: luis.nogueira@cesp.com.br 7 Distinguished Professor, UCLA; e-mail: williamy@seas.ucla.edu; ASCE Honorary Member 1563 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2013: Showcasing the Future © ASCE 2013
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