A statistical space-time-magnitude analysis on the aftershocks occurrence of the July 21th, 2017 MW = 6.5 Bodrum-Kos, Turkey, earthquake

Abstract

In this study, a detailed space-time-magnitude assessment on the aftershock sequence of July 21th, 2017, MW 6.5, Bodrum-Kos earthquake (Turkey) is carried out by focusing on the analyses of aftershock parameters: b-value, p-value, Dc-value and Mamax. b-value is estimated as 0.90 ± 0.05 with a completeness magnitude Mc = 1.6 and this relatively small b-value may be resulted from the abundance of aftershocks with magnitude ML ≥ 4.0. However, it is well represented by the Gutenberg-Richter law with a typically b ≈ 1.0. p-value is estimated as 1.04 ± 0.02 with a c-value = 0.224 ± 0.039 and is well characterized nearly close to the global p ≈ 1.0. This relatively high p-value may be a result of the relative fast decay rate of the aftershock activity. Dc-value is calculated as 1.74 ± 0.09 and it means that aftershocks are homogeneously distributed. Temporal distribution of b-value shows that small b-values may be due to a stepwise increase in effective stress before the occurrence of larger aftershocks. Regional changes range from 0.5 to 1.2 in b-value, from 0.4 to 1.3 in p-value and from 3.0 to 5.2 in Mamax. The smallest b-values are found in and around mainshock, including Karaada, Bodrum, Akyarlar and Turgutreis, and these regions have high stress as well as coseismic deformation. The largest p-values are found in and around the mainshock epicenter including Karaada, and it is interpreted that this situation may be caused by coseismic deformation. Mamax values larger than 4.4 are observed in and around mainshock epicenter, including Bodrum and Akyarlar, and there is a clear correlation between spatial variations of b-values and Mamax. These results show that stress changes and coseismic deformation seem highly effective on b and p-value variations. Therefore, a special interest needs to be given to these anomaly regions since aftershock hazard is highly associated with these parameters and may be developed considering their space-time-magnitude distribution.