A statistical model for determining zearalenone contamination in rice (Oryza sativa L.) at harvest and its prediction under different climate change scenarios in South Korea

Yongsung Joo,Sang Yoo Lee,Hyang Sook Chun,Ki Hwan Park,Hyun Ee Ok,Jihyun Kim,Su Kyung Jang

doi:10.1186/s13765-019-0447-z

Yongsung Joo, Sang Yoo Lee + Show 5 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1186/s13765-019-0447-z

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Abstract

Mycotoxin contamination of food grains is a food safety hazard, and zearalenone (ZEN) is one such mycotoxin affecting rice grains (Oryza sativa L.). A statistical model for estimating the impacts of climate change on ZEN contamination of rice grains in South Korea was constructed. Observational data on ZEN concentrations in rice grains at harvest and local weather information from 241 rice fields in South Korea were collected. To estimate the impact of weather variables on ZEN concentrations, multiple regression analyses were conducted along with variable selection procedure. The final model included the following variables: average temperature and humidity over the flowering period, daily (between days) change in temperature over the harvest period, degree of milling, and the climate region. On the basis of this regression model, maps showing ZEN contamination were produced for South Korea in the present day, the 2030s, and the 2050s, using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. The predictive maps project that in the 2030s and 2050s, ZEN contamination in rice grains will increase nationwide, particularly more so on the western side of South Korea. Our research results might be helpful in developing effective control measures against ZEN contamination due to climate change.

Highlights

Contamination of stored food and feed with fungal metabolites known as mycotoxins is unavoidable and at times unpredictable
The objectives of this study were to build a descriptive model estimating the effects of weather on the contamination of rice with ZEN, and to generate maps of potential ZEN contamination in rice in South Korea under the following representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios: RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5
Factors affecting the level of ZEN in rice grains at harvest A censored regression analysis was conducted with the whole data set

Summary

Introduction

Contamination of stored food and feed with fungal metabolites known as mycotoxins is unavoidable and at times unpredictable. It is a great challenge for food safety control. Zearalenone is a nonsteroidal estrogenic mycotoxin biosynthesized via a polyketide pathway by a variety of Fusarium fungi [1]. These fungi include Fusarium graminearum (Gibberella zeae), F. culmorum, F. equiseti, and F. cerealis, which infect preharvest grains. Fungal growth and ZEN production may occur after harvest under poor storage conditions [5]. A wide variety of cereals such as barley, oats, wheat, and rice are susceptible to ZEN contamination, both in temperate and warmer climate zones [1, 6]

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