A Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic Basin

Abstract

Abstract A statistical model for predicting intensity changes of Atlantic tropical cyclones at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h is described. The model was developed using a standard multiple regression technique with climatological, persistence, and synoptic predictors. The model developmental sample includes all of the named Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1989 to 1992, with a few additional cases from 1982 to 1988. The sample includes only the times when the storms were over the ocean. The four primary predictors are 1) the difference between the current storm intensity and an estimate of the maximum possible intensity determined from the sea surface temperature, 2) the vertical shear of the horizontal wind, 3) persistence, and 4) the flux convergence of eddy angular momentum evaluated at 200 mb. The sea surface temperature and vertical shear variables are averaged along the track of the storm during the forecast period. The sea surface temperatures along the storm track are determined from monthly climatologi...