Abstract
Conservation efforts are aided by reliable forecasts of extinction risk, under future environmental conditions and management actions. We conducted a statistical metapopulation viability analysis for the federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frog, propagating relevant sources of uncertainty. Our results suggested that without management intervention, extinction risk could be as high as 37% by year 2066. However, pond restoration reduced the upper limit on extinction risk to as low as 2%. Our approach allows management decisions to be made with a more complete understanding of the uncertainty around the intended effect of each management decision. These photographs illustrate the article “A statistical forecasting approach to metapopulation viability analysis” by Paige E. Howell, Blake R. Hossack, Erin Muths, Brent H. Sigafus, Ann Chenevert-Steffler, and Richard B. Chandler published in Ecological Applications. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2038
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