A statistical approach to analyze and forecast the dynamics of active fire in the Brazilian legal Amazon

Abstract

Anthropic fires are hugely responsible for the deforestation of the Brazilian legal Amazon region, one of the world’s most important ecosystems. In this way, policies must be implemented to reduce such a phenomenon. Preventive policies must be manifold, but historical time series analysis and active fire behavior predictions might subside part of the actions. Following this track, the present study aims to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of active fire, using historical data of active fire comprising all states in the Brazilian legal Amazon region from January 2000 to December 2022. We used information from the National Institute for Space Research to fit appropriate statistical models for counting time series and forecast the monthly behavior of active fire until May 2023. The results showed that approximately 73% of active fires were registered in Pará, Mato Grosso, and Rondônia states, mainly between 2000 and 2010. In Pará, the forecast obtained reflects the phenomenon’s seasonality, with a higher concentration between August and November. In summary, the adopted methodology provided results that facilitated an understanding of the dynamics of active fire in the Brazilian legal Amazon region and can be considered a relevant tool to help authorities formulate public policies for arson prevention.