A Statistical Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Abstract

Abstract Cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of tropical cyclone wind speeds are calculated using best track data from the North Atlantic and western North Pacific basins. Wind speeds are normalized by theoretical potential wind speeds derived from reanalysis datasets, and the individual storms are classified according to whether their maximum intensities were limited by landfall, passage over cold water, or other factors. For each classification, CDFs were calculated and the evolution of the storm wind speed was composited relative to the time at which each storm achieved its lifetime maximum wind speed. For storms of hurricane strength whose maximum intensity is not limited by declining potential intensity (landfall or passage over cold water), the normalized CDFs of storm lifetime maximum wind speed are nearly linear, in contrast to the lognormal distributions found with many other geophysical phenomena, such as earthquakes. Thus there is a roughly equal likelihood that any given tropical cyclone ...