A stakeholders’ pathway towards a future land use and food system in Germany

Modelling food demand in the 21st century

The future of environmental sustainability labelling on food products

Food systems are complex socio-ecological systems affected by accelerating, interconnected challenges across scales. In the Midwest United States (U.S.), row crops (corn and soybean) dominate the landscape, primarily for production of fuel or feed exported outside the region. In Iowa, over 90% of table food (for direct human consumption) is imported from outside the state. In this context, growing table food around growing metropolitan areas presents both a challenge and an opportunity for increasingly local and sustainable food systems. This dissertation is focused on measuring environmental impacts of food systems by addressing interactions between food, energy, and water systems (FEWS) while incorporating potential social impacts. In the first study, the environmental impacts of local vegetable production for mid-scale commercial and small-scale home gardens in Iowa were compared to typical impacts of large-scale U.S. vegetable production using a life cycle assessment approach. For all vegetable types, typical U.S. vegetable production produced greater global warming potential, energy and water use than both mid-scale commercial and small-scale home gardening in Iowa. The second study developed food system scenarios for the Des Moines Metropolitan Statistical Area (DM-MSA) to understand how localizing food production and changing food consumption patterns would affect environmental impacts across the food system (e.g., global warming potential, energy, water, land use). Localizing production reduced environmental impacts to a greater degree than did altering consumption patterns to follow dietary guidelines for Americans. Even greater reductions to environmental impacts would be possible if alternative dietary changes were adopted (e.g., EAT-Lancet diet). In the third study, a visualization of future (2050) land use in the DM-MSA was developed to show how meeting 50% of fruit, vegetable and grain consumption for the population of the DM-MSA could be achieved. This future scenario would involve a 17-fold increase in land use but would only require transition in land use for 2.6% of agricultural land in the DM-MSA. A survey of DM-MSA table food and commodity crop producers was conducted to determine which of nine key factors would influence producers to add or increase table food production in their operations. However, few producers planned to increase table food production in the DM-MSA based on challenges to feasibility of this shift for most of them. Key challenges included insufficient processing and supply chain infrastructure for table foods, difficulty finding skilled labor, limited land access and lack of policy support. In the fourth study, a systematic literature review of social equity in FEWS assessments across scales (local, regional, national, global) was conducted. There were three primary ways social equity was addressed in FEWS analyses, through analyses of affordability, access (spatial and quality) and sociocultural factors. The scale and objectives of FEWS analyses determined which type of integration was most useful. Integrating equity in FEWS has important governance implications and could be accomplished using place-based methods at decision-making scales. In sum, Midwestern food systems are complex socio-ecological systems and studies combining environmental and social factors produce results that could be used to design more sustainable localized food systems in the future.

Protein transition and circular food system transition are two proposed strategies for supporting food system sustainability. Here we model animal-sourced protein to plant-sourced protein ratios within a European circular food system, finding that maintaining the current animal–plant protein share while redesigning the system with circular principles resulted in the largest relative reduction of 44% in land use and 70% in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared with the current food system. Shifting from a 60:40 to a 40:60 ratio of animal-sourced proteins to plant-sourced proteins yielded a 60% reduction in land use and an 81% GHG emission reduction, while supporting nutritionally adequate diets. Differences between current and recommended total protein intake did not substantially impact minimal land use and GHG emissions. Micronutrient inadequacies occurred with less than 18 g animal protein per capita per day. Redesigning the food system varied depending on whether land use or GHG emissions were reduced—highlighting the need for a food system approach when designing policies to enhance human and planetary health.

● A provincial stage-specific greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting model for the Chinese food system was developed. ● From 1992 to 2017, the net GHG emission from the Chinese food system increased by 38% from 785 to 1080 Tg CO2-eq. ● In 2017, top GHG emission regions were located in the central and southern China, the North China Plain and Northeast China, while GHG sink regions were Tibet, Qinghai and Xinjiang. ● Total GHG emission from the Chinese food system could be reduced to 355 Tg CO2-eq in a low-carbon scenario, with enhancing mitigation technologies, transforming diet and its related conditions and increasing agricultural activities contributing 60%, 25% and 15% of the GHG reductions, respectively. In China, there has been insufficient study of whole food system greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting, which limits the development of mitigation strategies and may preclude the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. The paper presents the development of a carbon extension of NUFER (NUtrient flows in Food chain, Environment and Resources use model), a food system GHG emission accounting model that covers land use and land-use change, agricultural production, and post-production subsectors. The spatiotemporal characteristics of GHG emissions were investigated for the Chinese food system (CFS) from 1992 to 2017, with a focus on GHG emissions from the entire system. The potential to achieve a low-carbon food system in China was explored. The net GHG emissions from the CFS increased from 785 Tg CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq) in 1992 to 1080 Tg CO2-eq in 2017. Agricultural activities accounted for more than half of the total emissions during the study period, while agricultural energy was the largest contributor to the GHG increase. In 2017, highest emitting regions were located in central and southern China (Guangdong and Hunan), the North China Plain (Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu) and Northeast China (Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia) and contributed to over half of the total GHG emissions. Meanwhile, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet are shown as carbon sink areas. It was found that food-system GHG emissions could be reduced to 355 Tg CO2-eq, where enhancing endpoint mitigation technologies, transforming social-economic and diet conditions, and increasing agricultural productivities can contribute to 60%, 25% and 15%, respectively. Synergistic mitigation effects were found to exist in agricultural activities.

Food systems encompass interconnected actors and activities that bring food from farm to fork and the broader environments (economic, societal and natural) they are embedded in. Food systems operate at high cost to human and environmental health. 20-30% of total human-created greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally are attributable to food system activities. The agri-food sector plays a vital role in the Irish economy. In 2021 agri-food exports valued €18.7 billion and provided 7.1% of jobs in Ireland. Economic growth in the sector has come at the expense of the environment. In 2018 Ireland had the highest GHG emissions from food systems per capita in the EU. This paper presents an overview of GHG emissions from Irish food system activities 1990-2018. Data from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research were used to examine changes in food system emissions (Mt C02-equivalent(eq)) over time (1990-2018). Shares of total emissions by system stage (land use, production, processing, packaging, retail, transport, consumption and food waste) were also analysed. Food and agriculture policy developments were mapped to changes in emissions over time. After a decline from 2000 to 2011, food system emissions in Ireland are trending upwards. Total food system emissions in Ireland in 2018 measured 34Mt (C02-eq), accounting for 52% of all Irish emissions. 84% of food system emissions arose from production. Packaging and transport of food represented 3.7% each and consumption amounted to 0.84%. Increasing sustainability in the food system requires an understanding of where and how emissions arise across the whole system. Research on Irish food-related emissions has focused on agriculture and land use but little is published on activities later in the system. Estimating GHG contribution across the Irish food system this analysis provides important information for targeted policy development for mitigating food system impacts on climate change and health. Key messages • By estimating GHG contribution across the Irish food system this analysis provides important information for targeted policy development for mitigating food system impacts on climate change. • Increasing sustainability in the food system requires an understanding of where and how emissions arise across the whole system.

Future of food: Innovating towards sustainable healthy diets

China's increasing food consumption, particularly for animal products, presents a substantial challenge to mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, not only within China but also extending to its trading partners. In this study, we employ the well-established food system integrated assessment model (GLOBIOM-China) to comprehensively investigate GHG emissions within the context of China's future food consumption. Our study indicates that in the baseline scenario (BAU), GHG emissions from China's food consumption side are projected to be 965 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2 eq) by 2060, similar to the current level. Domestically, ruminant production accounts for a substantial 44% of total consumption-based emissions. Meanwhile, livestock-related methane emissions take prominence in terms of different gas categories, comprising a significant 45%. Virtual GHG emissions import is expected to decrease due to the deceleration of land use change, while the GHG emissions attributable to livestock product imports are projected to incrementally rise, eventually constituting 17.2% of the total food consumption-based emissions. Striving for food self-sufficiency (SS scenario) offers a pathway to diminishing China's food system GHG emissions and virtually imported emissions by 6% and 43%, respectively. However, this scenario presents an increase of domestic emissions by 2% and simultaneously poses challenges to domestic land use and other related indicators. Maintaining basic food self-sufficiency, and reducing calorie intake from animal sources and improving production practices contribute to a 216 Mt CO2eq reduction of total GHG emissions. This approach not only holds promise for emission reduction but also brings broader benefits such as decreased agricultural commodity prices (by -28%), reduced nitrogen fertilizer uses (by -13%), diminished agricultural land requirement (by -10%), and only 2% decline in per capita calorie intake. Our study reconciles GHG mitigation strategies and food security within China's food system, thereby contributing significantly to global sustainable development.

Bioenergy from energy crops is a source of negative emissions and carbon-neutral fuels in many 1.5/2 ∘C IPCC pathways. This may compete with other land uses. In contrast, ancillary biomass like by-products and waste is not primarily grown for energy and thus without land/food/feed competition. Here, we examine the availability and environmental impacts of ancillary bioenergy from agricultural sources under 190 circular agroecological strategies using the global food-system model SOLm for the year 2050. We find that there is a diverse option space for the future food and energy system to meet both global warming targets (1.5 ∘C) and food system sustainability (medium to highly organic) – a similar range of ancillary bioenergy global potential (55–65 EJ)from very different food systems (50%–75% organic agriculture and various levels of waste and concentrate feeding reduction). We find three trade-offs between food system sustainability and ancillary bioenergy provision. First, there is a clear trade-off between nutrient recycling and negative emissions potential. 1.4–2.6 GTCO2eq of negative emissions supplied through ancillary bioenergy with carbon capture and storage comes at the cost of nutrient deficits and resulting incompatibility with even a medium degree of organic farming. Second, reducing feed from croplands increases the ancillary bioenergy production with low shares of organic agriculture and reduces it for high shares. Third, food waste reduction reduces ancillary bioenergy provision. Hence, the sustainable transformation of the food system towards a less animal-based diet and waste reduction may conflict with a higher ancillary bioenergy provision, especially when the organic share is high as well. The policy implication of our results is that ancillary bioenergy can provide a similar range of future bioenergy as foreseen in IPCC AR6 illustrative pathways (±10% ) without additional land use or compromising food availability. However, higher ancillary bioenergy provision or additional negative emissions compete with food system sustainability; hence, we recommend policymakers consider aligning energy system planning with the compatibility of sustainable food systems simultaneously.

Reply to L Aleksandrowicz et al.

Most climate change mitigation policies, including those of higher education institutions, do not include food system greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Yet the food system contributes ∼30% of anthropogenic GHGE, mostly from animal source foods. Food system changes are necessary to meet GHGE mitigation targets and could do so relatively inexpensively and rapidly with major health, social and environmental co-benefits. To estimate the potential impact of integrating higher education institution climate and food policies, we used the case of the University of California (UC), comprising 10 campuses with 280,000 students. The UC is a leader in climate and food research, and has major policy initiatives for mitigating climate change and for promoting healthy, sustainable food systems. Like most higher education institutions, the UC climate change mitigation target for 2025 covers only Scope 1 and 2 GHGE (campus-generated and purchased energy), yet Scope 3 GHGE (indirect, including food system) are often institutions’ largest. We created scenarios using results of studies of US dietary changes, and existing, planned or potential UC food system changes. These scenarios could reduce UC Scope 3 food emissions by 42–55%, equivalent to 8–9% of UC’s targeted energy GHGE reduction, and 19–22% of offsets need to reach that target. These results have implications for broader climate policy in terms of food systems’ high GHGE, the health, environmental, economic and social benefits of food system changes, and ways these changes could be implemented. To our knowledge this is one of the first empirical studies of the potential for integrating climate and food policy in HEIs. Key policy insights Most higher education institution climate policies, including those of the University of California (UC), do not include food system GHGE Research at higher education institutions makes major contributions to understanding the need to reduce food system GHGE to achieve Paris Agreement goals Higher education institutions, including UC, have made many food system changes, but their climate co-benefits are not optimized, documented or integrated with climate policies Our food system change scenarios show that UC’s food system could substantially reduce GHGE These changes can incentivize UC and other higher education institutions to integrate their climate and food policies.

<scp>IFST</scp> vision for a <scp>UK</scp>‐wide national food strategy

New estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food system were developed at the country level, for the period 1990–2018, integrating data from crop and livestock production, on-farm energy use, land use and land use change, domestic food transport and food waste disposal. With these new country-level components in place, and by adding global and regional estimates of energy use in food supply chains, we estimate that total GHG emissions from the food system were about 16 CO2eq yr−1 in 2018, or one-third of the global anthropogenic total. Three quarters of these emissions, 13 Gt CO2eq yr−1, were generated either within the farm gate or in pre- and post-production activities, such as manufacturing, transport, processing, and waste disposal. The remainder was generated through land use change at the conversion boundaries of natural ecosystems to agricultural land. Results further indicate that pre- and post-production emissions were proportionally more important in developed than in developing countries, and that during 1990–2018, land use change emissions decreased while pre- and post-production emissions increased. We also report results on a per capita basis, showing world total food systems per capita emissions decreasing during 1990–2018 from 2.9 to 2.2 t CO2eq cap−1, with per capita emissions in developed countries about twice those in developing countries in 2018. Our findings also highlight that conventional IPCC categories, used by countries to report emissions in the National GHG inventory, systematically underestimate the contribution of the food system to total anthropogenic emissions. We provide a comparative mapping of food system categories and activities in order to better quantify food-related emissions in national reporting and identify mitigation opportunities across the entire food system.

Feeding a growing, increasingly affluent population while limiting environmental pressures of food production is a central challenge for society. Understanding the location and magnitude of food production is key to addressing this challenge because pressures vary substantially across food production types. Applying data and models from life cycle assessment with the methodologies for mapping cumulative environmental impacts of human activities (hereafter cumulative impact mapping) provides a powerful approach to spatially map the cumulative environmental pressure of food production in a way that is consistent and comprehensive across food types. However, these methodologies have yet to be combined. By synthesizing life cycle assessment and cumulative impact mapping methodologies, we provide guidance for comprehensively and cumulatively mapping the environmental pressures (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, spatial occupancy, and freshwater use) associated with food production systems. This spatial approach enables quantification of current and potential future environmental pressures, which is needed for decision makers to create more sustainable food policies and practices.

Connecting food supply chains