A spatio-temporal infection epidemic model with fractional order, general incidence, and vaccination analysis

Abstract

The paper investigates a spatio-temporal SEIR epidemic model on a global level with fractional order. It employs four partial differential equations incorporating fractional derivatives and account for diffusion to characterize infection dynamics. By applying fixed-point theorem results, the paper establishes the existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of the solution. Equilibrium points are determined based on vaccination values and the basic reproduction number R0. Global stability of each equilibrium is confirmed using the Lyapunov direct method. Through simulations with a predictor–corrector algorithm, key insights into epidemiological dynamics are provided, elucidating the impact of vaccination on reducing disease transmission and altering R0. Trajectories of various compartments closely align with theoretical equilibrium points, affirming the model’s predictive precision. Furthermore, simulations indicate the potential for attaining disease-free equilibria with heightened vaccination rates, underscoring the pivotal role of vaccination strategies in epidemic control and disease eradication. It was shown that the fractional derivative order has no effect on the equilibrium stability but rather only on the convergence speed towards the equilibrium points.