A spatial evaluation method for earthquake disaster using optimized BP neural network model

Abstract

Rapid spatial evaluation of seismic disaster after earthquake occurrence is required in disaster emergency rescue management, because of its importance in decreasing casualties and property losses. Among many categories of seismic disaster, evaluation of earthquake-affected population is of great significance to clarify the severity of earthquake disaster. For simple classic regression model, it is difficult to describe the strong nonlinear relationship between multiple influencing factors and earthquake disasters. In present study, an optimized BP neural network model considering spatial characteristic of influencing factors is proposed to evaluate the population distribution affected by earthquake. The correlation between earthquake-affected population and influencing factors is analysed using data of 2013 Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake. Ten influencing factors including elevation, slope angle, population density, per capita GDP, distance to fault, distance to river, NDVI, PGA, PGV, and distance to the epicentre, were classified into environmental and seismic factors. Correlation analysis revealed that per capita GDP and PGA factor had a stronger correlation with the earthquake-affected population. The earthquake-affected population was evaluated using a BP neural network by optimizing training samples considering spatial characteristics of per capita GDP and PGA factors. Different numbers of sample points, instead of a random distribution of sample points, were generated in areas with different value intervals of the influencing factors. The optimized samples improved the convergence speed and generalization capability of neuron network compared to random samples. The trained network was applied to the 2017 Ms7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake to verify its prediction accuracy. The MAE of the estimated earthquake-affected populations of different counties under Jiuzhaigou earthquake were 1.276 people/km2 using network model from optimized samples, smaller than the results of network model from random samples and linear regression model. The results indicate that BP neural network, which considers correlation characteristics of factors, has capability to evaluate spatial earthquake disaster.