A Spatial Autocorrelation Method for Taenia solium Risk Mapping: The Case of Lao PDR.

Abstract

The World Health Organization has identified Taenia solium mapping tools as an important development for intensifying control in hyperendemic areas. Taenia solium has also been identified as a priority by the Lao PDR government. There is a limited understanding of the distribution of T. solium due to inherent diagnostic challenges. Global and local autocorrelation statistics were applied to available risk factor data sourced from national censuses to map the risk of Taenia solium in Lao PDR. Approximately 50% of villages could be considered hot spots for one or more risk factors. Different risk factor hot spots co-occurred in 30% of villages. Twenty per cent of villages were classified as hot spots for the proportion of households owning pigs and another risk factor. Northern Lao PDR was the dominant high-risk area. This is consistent with passive reports, limited surveys, and anecdotal reports. One smaller area in southern Lao PDR was also identified as high-risk. This is of particular interest because T. solium has not previously been investigated in this area. The methods applied provide a simple, rapid, and versatile approach that allows endemic countries to begin mapping the risk of T. solium at a sub-national level.