A Socio-Political and -Cultural Model of the War in Afghanistan1

Abstract

We present a simulation model of current conflict-torn Afghanistan in which a system-dynamics model is coupled with an agent-based model. Agent-based modeling techniques are applied to model individual cognition and behavior as well as group formation processes. System-dynamics modeling is used for representing macro conflict processes, such as duration of violence and combat success ratio. The cognitive and behavioral processes are couched in a socio-cultural context and feed into the system dynamics processes. This affords us exploring the relationship between local socio-culturally-driven cognition and behavior and (dynamic) macro properties of armed conflict. We demonstrate the importance of analyzing conflict-torn Afghanistan from an interplay of adapting “traditional” socio-cultural mechanisms, political culture and power structures, and politico-economic macro-processes. We find that variations in the conflict's superstructure can be explained through variations in socio-culturally dependent structures. The model indicates limitations with regard to classical prediction, but is promising with regard to explanatory-driven pattern forecasting.