A Snapshot of the Crisis of COVID-19: Estimate of the Employment Impact Due to Lockdowns in Cagayan de Oro City, Philippines

Abstract

When coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) became a national health crisis, the local government of the Cagayan de Oro City (CDOC) did not implement total lockdown. The COVID-19 Adjustment Measure Program adopted by the local government probably affected the April 2020 Labor Force Survey that showed that Region 10 posted an employment rate of 88.9%, which is higher than the national average of 82.3% (Department of Labor and Employment, Region Office No. X (DOLE-X). NorMin secures highest employment rate amid COVID 19. 2020. Available from: https://pia.gov.ph/news/articles/1044898 [Accessed 9th May 2021]). Despite the regional figure being 6.6 percentage points higher than the national one, there is a decrease in employed persons by around 400,000 from 2.302 million persons employed in April 2019 to 1.883 million in April 2020 (Department of Labor and Employment, Region Office No. X (DOLE-X). NorMin secures highest employment rate amid COVID 19. 2020. Available from: https://pia.gov.ph/news/articles/1044898 [Accessed 9th May 2021]). Hence, the study determines the effect of COVID-19 protective measures implemented by the government on the economy of CDOC. Using the barangay-level and selected sectoral-level data on business registration, and employment data between 2010 and 2019, the study estimates that one-week lockdown means a ₱1,825 loss of income for a minimum-wage employee. One-month lockdown costs ₱7,300 foregone income, while one-quarter lockdown (or a half of six months) is equivalent to ₱21,900 income loss. We recommend 10 policy interventions, but the government should also think big and invest its resources into programs that create a multiplier effect on the economy. Multipliers are interventions that create ripples or positive impacts on other sectors and/or economic participants.