A Simulation Study on Optimization of Sowing Time of Maize (Zea mays L.) for Maximization of Growth and Yield in the Present Context of Climate Change under the North China Plain

Abstract

Adjusting the sowing dates of crops is an effective measure for adapting them to climate change, but very few studies have explained how the optimum sowing dates can be determined. In this study, we used the sowing date field data from 2018 to 2021 from Hebei Gucheng Agricultural Meteorology National Observation and Research Station to analyze the effects of the sowing date on growth, development, and yield of maize, and to quantify the impact of light-temperature potential productivity on different stages of the yield formation. The results showed that delayed sowing decreased the vegetative growth period (VGP) and increased the reproductive growth period (RGP) of maize. The light-temperature potential productivity of the whole growth (WG) period had an exponential relationship with the theoretical yield. At least 14,614.95 kg ha−1 of light-temperature potential productivity was needed to produce grain yield. The maximum theoretical yield was approximately 18,052.56 kg ha−1, as indicated by the curve simulation results. The influence of light-temperature potential productivity on theoretical yield was as follows: VGP > RGP > vegetative and reproductive period (VRP). Accordingly, a method for determining the sowing time window based on VGP was established, and the optimal sowing dates were estimated for 1995–2021 and the SSP2-4.5 scenario in CMIP6 in the middle of this century (2030–2060). The simulation results showed that the optimum sowing date of maize “Lianyu 1” at the study site was 20–25 May in 1995–2021. In the middle of this century, the optimal sowing time of maize was ahead of schedule and the suitable sowing window was increased slightly. We conclude that advancing the sowing date of maize is a practical strategy for enhancing yield in the context of climate warming, and this strategy will provide a meaningful reference for scientific optimization of sowing dates to adapt maize to climate change.