Abstract
The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a structured technique used to analyze complex decision-making situations such as resource allocation, benchmarking, and quality management. In the weight valuation step of using AHP to select the best design, pairwise comparison matrices are used to calculate the local priorities for designs that have contentious and unresolved criticisms. In this study, we propose a Bayesian approach using a Dirichlet-multinomial model to estimate local priorities during weight valuation. Experts are only asked to select the best design with respect to predetermined criterion. Subsequently, local priorities are estimated without pairwise comparison matrices. To improve the efficiency of the AHP, we propose two expert allocation policies (AHP-KG and AHP-AKG) based on the ranking and selection procedures. Our numerical results show that the proposed AHP-KG and AHP-AKG policies outperform pure exploration and proportional allocation policies.
Published Version
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