A simplified system dynamics model to investigate the effects of urban transportation management policies on reducing CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract

Kuwait suffers from severe air pollution levels making it on the top ten list worldwide pollution wise based on the records of Air Quality Index (AQI). The transport and energy sectors represent the major players in contributing to the current unprecedent pollution situation Kuwait is suffering from. The unique harsh arid weather associated with high levels of humidity, high temperatures and frequent sandstorms in the region intensifies the extent of the pollution crisis. There is almost no single study in the literature that focused on testing different scenarios on transport and energy sectors effects into the reduction of prevailing pollution levels in this region of the world. This work comes to fill this gap in the literature. A simplified system dynamics model (covering the years from 2004 to 2040) was developed for Kuwait to simulate the effects of different urban transportation management policies on reducing CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions levels. Two policies were tested: a gasoline tax with low, medium, and high rates, as well as a free bus service. Combined policies resulting from merging the gasoline tax at different levels with the free bus service were also tested, which outperformed the two separate plans being implemented alone. The best combined strategy achieved was to encourage citizens to use public transportation by utilizing the free bus service rather than using private vehicles in addition to impose a high fuel tax. This action was anticipated to reduce CO2 emissions by 14 million metric tons and the number of private vehicles by 3 million vehicles by the end of 2040. Such approach proved to be helpful in reducing the pollution levels and in turn decrease the severity of global warming phenomenon in the Arabian desertic peninsula.