What constitutes a sustainable urban growth management policy? A Delphi approach to develop alternative policy scenarios

Abstract

The planning literature, against the backdrop of rapid urbanisation, technological advancement (automated vehicle), and climate change, tells very little about what constitutes a sustainable urban growth management policy. This research aims to address this gap through a two - round of Delphi survey involving 29 experts from six related fields: urban planning, transportation, economic development, environmental planning, social planning, and academia. Based on the literature, t he study first developed 19 pol icy scenarios under three focused areas (environment al, economic, and balanced). In R ound 1 of the Delphi survey , experts were requested to highlight the importance of these scenarios on a 5 -point Likert scale. Consensus level among the experts was assesse d using median score and expected probability of occurrence. In Round 2, the consensus level of each scenario was provided and the experts were requested to indicate whether they agree with the scores. Results from Round 1 show that none of the scenarios reached consensus based on a 50% a cut -off point. However, in Round 2, all policy scenarios reached a consensus with: two as highly important , seven as important, seven as moderately important, and the remaining three as less important . Highly important policy scenarios include: avoid high risk development in flood zones ; and fast paced development to accommodate demand for housing infrastructure and services such as health, education, electricity, water and other utilities . The findings suggest that ther e is no common understanding about what constitutes a sustainable urban growth management policy and that a range of issues require policy implement ation for a sustainable future.