A simple scoring system for risk-stratifying rectal cancer patients prior to radical resection

Abstract

Various predictors of perioperative risk for patients with rectal cancer undergoing radical resection have been well described, but no simple scoring system for surgeons to estimate this risk currently exists. The objective of this study was to develop a system for more accurate preoperative evaluations of competing risks and more informed shared decision-making with patients diagnosed with rectal cancer. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Participant Use Data File for 2005-2011 was used to retrospectively identify patients undergoing radical resection for rectal cancer. A forward-stepwise multivariable logistic regression model was used to create a dynamic scoring system to preoperatively estimate a patient's risk of major complications. A total of 6,847 patients met study inclusion criteria. Thirteen risk factors were identified, and using these predictive variables, a scoring system was derived to stratify major complication risk after radical resection. The risk of a major complication after radical resection for rectal cancer is dependent on multiple preoperative variables. This study provides surgeons with a simple but effective tool for estimating major complication risk in rectal cancer patients prior to radical resection. This risk-stratification score serves as a patient-centered resource for discussing perioperative risks and assisting with the shared decision-making of operative planning.