A Short-Term Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting Method Based on High-Order Tensor (Student Abstract)

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TC) bring enormous harm to human beings, and it is crucial to accurately forecast the intensity of TCs, but the progress of intensity forecasting has been slow in recent years, and tropical cyclones are an extreme weather phenomenon with short duration, and the sample size of TC intensity series is small and short in length. In this paper, we devolop a tensor ARIMA model based on feature reconstruction to solve the problem, which represents multiple time series as low-rank Block Hankel Tensor(BHT), and combine the tensor decomposition technique with ARIMA for time series prediction. The method predicts the sustained maximum wind speed and central minimum pressure of TC 6-24 hours in advance, and the results show that the method exceeds the global numerical model GSM operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in the short term. We further checked the prediction results for a TC, and the results show the validity of the method.