Forecasting a Large Number of Tropical Cyclone Intensities around Japan Using a High-Resolution Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Model

Abstract

Abstract This work quantifies the benefits of using a high-resolution atmosphere–ocean coupled model in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts in the vicinity of Japan. To do so, a large number of high-resolution calculations were performed by running the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nonhydrostatic atmospheric mesoscale model (AMSM) and atmosphere–ocean coupled mesoscale model (CMSM). A total of 281 3-day forecasts were compiled for 34 TCs from April 2009 to September 2012 for each model. The performance of these models is compared with the JMA global atmospheric spectral model (GSM) that is used for the operational TC intensity guidance. The TC intensities are better predicted by CMSM than the other models. The improvement rates in CMSM relative to GSM and AMSM generally increase with increasing forecast time (FT). CMSM is better than GSM and AMSM by 27.4% and 21.3% at FT = 48 h in terms of minimum sea level pressure, respectively. Regarding the maximum wind speed, CMSM is better than GSM and AMSM by 12.8% and 19.5% at FT = 48 h, respectively. This is due to smaller initial intensity errors and sea surface cooling consistent with in situ observations that suppress erroneous TC intensification. Thus, a high-resolution coupled model is promising for TC intensity prediction in the area surrounding Japan, where most of the TCs are in a decay stage. In contrast, coupling to the upper-ocean model yields only a negligible difference in the TC track forecast skill on average.