A Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Framework Coupling a Maximum Information Coefficient, Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise, Shared Weight Gated Memory Network with Improved Northern Goshawk Optimization for Numerical Weather Prediction Correction

Abstract

In line with global carbon-neutral policies, wind power generation has received widespread public attention, which can enhance the security of supply and social sustainability. Since wind with non-stationarity and randomness makes power systems unstable, precise wind speed forecasting is an integral part of wind farm scheduling and management. Therefore, a compound short-term wind speed forecasting framework based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) is proposed coupling a maximum information coefficient (MIC), complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), shared weight gated memory network (SWGMN) with improved northern goshawk optimization (INGO). Firstly, numerical weather prediction is adopted to acquire the predicted variables with different domains, including the predicted wind speed and other predicted meteorological variables, after which the error is calculated using the predicted and actual wind speeds. Then, the correlation between the predicted variables and the error is obtained using the MIC to select the correlation factors. Subsequently, CEEMDAN is employed to decompose the correlation factors, corresponding the actual factors and the error into a series of subsequences, which are regarded as the input series. After that, the input series is fed into the proposed SWGMN to forecast each subsequent error, respectively, in which the shared gate is proposed to replace the input gate, the forgetting gate and the output gate. Meanwhile, the proposed INGO based on northern goshawk optimization (NGO), the levy flight disturbance strategy and the nonlinear contraction strategy is applied to calibrate the parameters of the SWGMN. Finally, the forecasting values are acquired by summing the forecasted error and the predicted wind speed from the NWP. The experimental results depict that the errors are small among all the models. Compared with the traditional method, the proposed framework achieves higher prediction accuracy and efficiency. The application of this framework not only assists in optimizing the operation and management of wind farms, but also reduces the dependence on fossil fuels, thereby promoting environmental protection and the sustainable use of resources.