A short- and medium-term forecasting model for roof PV systems with data pre-processing

Abstract

This study worked with Chunghwa Telecom to collect data from 17 rooftop solar photovoltaic plants installed on top of office buildings, warehouses, and computer rooms in northern, central and southern Taiwan from January 2021 to June 2023. A data pre-processing method combining linear regression and K Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) was proposed to estimate missing values for weather and power generation data. Outliers were processed using historical data and parameters highly correlated with power generation volumes were used to train an artificial intelligence (AI) model. To verify the reliability of this data pre-processing method, this study developed multilayer perceptron (MLP) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models to make short-term and medium-term power generation forecasts for the 17 solar photovoltaic plants. Study results showed that the proposed data pre-processing method reduced normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) for short- and medium-term forecasts in the MLP model by 17.47% and 11.06%, respectively, and also reduced the nRMSE for short- and medium-term forecasts in the LSTM model by 20.20% and 8.03%, respectively.