Developing a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-Based Model for Reconstructing Terrestrial Water Storage Variations from 1982 to 2016 in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China

Abstract

Estimating Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) not only helps to provide a comprehensive insight into water resource variability and the hydrological cycle but also for better water resource management. In the current research, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data are combined with the available hydrological data to reconstruct a longer record of Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA) prior to 2003 of the Tarim River Basin (TRB), based on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. We found that the TWSA generated by LSTM using soil moisture, evapotranspiration, precipitation, and temperature best matches the GRACE-derived TWSA, with a high correlation coefficient (r) of 0.922 and a Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.107 during the period 2003–2012. These results show that the LSTM model is an available and feasible method to generate TWSA. Further, the TWSA reveals a significant fluctuating downward trend (p < 0.001), with an average decline rate of 0.03 mm/month during the period 1982–2016 in the TRB. Moreover, the TWSA amount in the north of the TRB was less than that in the south of the basin. Overall, our findings unveiled that the LSTM model and GRACE data can be combined effectively to analyze the long-term TWSA in large-scale basins with limited hydrological data.