A Separate Peace: Explaining War, Crime, Violence, and Security During and After the Surge in Iraq

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In response to the 2006 peak in violence following the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq, American politicians debated whether to Surge additional troops or partition the nation into sectarian enclaves. There is little social scientific work that locates the Iraq conflict and the results of these debates in relation to broader theoretical frameworks or nationally representative data that can illuminate how Iraqis experienced the violence that swept through their communities. The Surge and partition strategies drew from an ethnic war theory that postulated deeply entrenched and unchanging sectarian divisions, while we propose that an endogenous conflict theory better explains how the troop Surge that was ultimately implemented helped consolidate and perpetuate an unequal and unstable “separate peace” that preceded a renewal of violence. We analyze multi-level, nationally representative survey data collected in Iraq from the peak in violence in 2007 through the transitory peace of 2009. Sunni communities reported more unnecessary attacks on civilians by U.S./Coalition troops during the Surge, while Shia communities reported lower levels of war violence and higher levels of perceived security. In striking contrast with ethnic war theory expectations, the few Sunni living in predominately Shia communities in 2008-2009 perceived greater security than the far more numerous Sunni living in predominately Sunni communities. Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki gained support through 2009 from the few Sunni as well as growing numbers of Shia living in the increasing number of predominately Shia communities. It was the Shia who gained the most and felt most secure during and after the Surge of U.S. forces, while the Sunni who lived overwhelmingly in predominately Sunni communities benefited less and felt less secure. This unequal and unstable “separate peace” was the context in which violence returned to Iraq in 2013.