A Seismic Risk Simulator for Iberia

Abstract

Abstract Iberia is positioned close to the Eurasia–Africa plate boundary. The return period between events is long, due to the moderate plate convergence rate. In the past, many Iberian cities have been severely damaged by earthquakes. A large record of historic events such as the 1344, 1531, 1722, 1755, and 1859 earthquakes were mentioned in coeval writings. A new seismic risk simulator, SImulador de Risco sismiCO (SIRCO), is proposed to estimate the seismic risk in Portugal. This methodology could also be transversally applied to the Iberian Peninsula. Two historic events, that of 1722 in the Algarve ( M w ∼7) and that of 1531 in Lisbon ( M w ∼6), have been modeled using SIRCO. These results have been compared with the results obtained with other seismic risk estimator software (ERSTA) and with the isoseismal maps obtained from historical data. A direct comparison between models suggests that SIRCO performs efficiently in estimating seismic risk for a large part of the Iberian Peninsula. The calculation time is acceptable as, currently, the whole process takes approximately 18–20 min. It could therefore be used as an almost real‐time tool. This makes SIRCO a valuable tool for Portuguese authorities for planning, prevention, and response.