A second hydrocarbon boom threatens the Peruvian Amazon: trends, projections, andpolicy implications

Abstract

The Peruvian Amazon is home to extraordinary biological and cultural diversity, and vastswaths of this mega-diverse region remain largely intact. Recent analysis indicates,however, that the rapid proliferation of oil and gas exploration zones now threatens theregion’s biodiversity, indigenous peoples, and wilderness areas. To better elucidate thisdynamic situation, we analyzed official Peruvian government hydrocarbon informationand generated a quantitative analysis of the past, present, and future of oil andgas activities in the Peruvian Amazon. We document an extensive hydrocarbonhistory for the region—over 104 000 km of seismic lines and 679 exploratory andproduction wells—highlighted by a major exploration boom in the early 1970s. Weshow that an unprecedented 48.6% of the Peruvian Amazon has been recentlycovered by oil and gas concessions, up from just 7.1% in 2003. These oil and gasconcessions overlap 17.1% of the Peruvian Amazon protected area system andover half of all titled indigenous lands. Moreover, we found that up to 72% of thePeruvian Amazon has been zoned for hydrocarbon activities (concessions plustechnical evaluation agreements and proposed concessions) in the past two years,and over 84% at some point during the past 40 years. We project that the recentrapid proliferation of hydrocarbon zones will lead to a second exploration boom,characterized by over 20 000 km of new seismic testing and construction of over 180 newexploratory wells in remote, intact, and sensitive forest areas. As the PeruvianAmazon oil frontier rapidly expands, we conclude that a rigorous policy debate isurgently needed in order to avoid the major environmental impacts associated withthe first exploration boom of the 1970s and to minimize the social conflict thatrecently led to deadly encounters between indigenous protesters and governmentforces.