A scenario-based food security analysis and halophyte crop suitability assessment in dying lake environments impacted by climate change

Abstract

Climate change has significantly impacted food shortages over the past decades, and predicted projections have also indicated potentially intensive consequences for species diversity and natural environments in the coming decades. Climate change in the form of drought has resulted in environmental impacts on global dying lakes (GDLs), such as water scarcity, land degradation and food shortage. Thus, new comprehensive environmental impact assessment methods are urgently needed for GDLs to inform decision-making and minimise the negative impacts on the environment and human life and wellbeing. As state of art and progressive research, the main objective of this research is to develop an approach using a comprehensive and transferable geographic information science scenario-based suitability assessment to analyse the capability of halophyte plants as alternatives for crop modification in GDL areas. The approach was developed and examined for Salicornia suitability mapping in the Lake Urmia Basin as one of the most critical GDL cases. To obtain the ecological requirement information, we performed a scenario-based cultivation experiment on Salicornia under different salinity conditions. Accordingly, we employed relevant ecological requirements and environmental indictors for the Salicornia plant (e.g. soil characteristics and climate) to identify suitable areas for cultivating this plant under scenario-based spatial modelling and performed an uncertainty analysis. The results were achieved and validated in a field operation and laboratory analysis. According to the results, the Salicornia plant can be efficiently considered an alternative crop in farmlands around Lake Urmia that are impacted by intensive soil, aquifer salinisation and food production issues. Results pointed out that about 4.6% of the area (2372 km2) is highly suitable for the cultivation of Salicornia. As state of the art, our approach was developed in a semi-automated context but can also be customised and applied to similar case studies in GDL environments. We expect that the information and insights gained from such assessments will support stakeholders, decision makers and authorities in the development of effective policies and plans for mitigating the impacts of climate change on the fragile ecosystems of GDLs.