A rumor spreading model based on information entropy

Chao Wang,Kang Hao Cheong,Zong Xuan Tan,Neng-Gang Xie,Ye Ye,Lu Wang

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-09171-8

Chao Wang, Kang Hao Cheong + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-09171-8

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Abstract

Rumor spreading can have a significant impact on people’s lives, distorting scientific facts and influencing political opinions. With technologies that have democratized the production and reproduction of information, the rate at which misinformation can spread has increased significantly, leading many to describe contemporary times as a ‘post-truth era’. Research into rumor spreading has primarily been based on either model of social and biological contagion, or upon models of opinion dynamics. Here we present a comprehensive model that is based on information entropy, which allows for the incorporation of considerations like the role of memory, conformity effects, differences in the subjective propensity to produce distortions, and variations in the degree of trust that people place in each other. Variations in the degree of trust are controlled by a confidence factor β, while the propensity to produce distortions is controlled by a conservation factor K. Simulations were performed using a Barabási–Albert (BA) scale-free network seeded with a single piece of information. The influence of β and K upon the temporal evolution of the system was subsequently analyzed regarding average information entropy, opinion fragmentation, and the range of rumor spread. These results can aid in decision-making to limit the spread of rumors.

Highlights

Rumor spreading can have a significant impact on people’s lives, distorting scientific facts and influencing political opinions
Research into the evolution of public opinion is of mutual relevance to models of rumor spreading and information exchange since pieces of information shared by multiple people can be thought of like opinions
We have considered various factors in the process of rumor spreading, including the role of memory, conformity effects, differences in the subjective propensity to produce distortions, and variations in the degree of trust that people place in each other

Summary

Introduction

Rumor spreading can have a significant impact on people’s lives, distorting scientific facts and influencing political opinions. The influence of β and K upon the temporal evolution of the system was subsequently analyzed regarding average information entropy, opinion fragmentation, and the range of rumor spread. Drawing from epidemic theory, Dotts et al.[16] introduced a general model of contagion which, by explicitly incorporating memory of past exposures into the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model, included the main features of existing contagion models and could interpolate between them From such models, Zhao et al.[17, 18] proposed a susceptible-infected-hibernator-removed (SIHR) model which incorporated the mechanisms of memory and forgetting, while Lü et al.[19] studied the strengthening of multiple infections and the influence of the external social factors in the established transmission model. Whether intentionally or unintentionally, existing information becomes distorted, and new information is formed and spread

Results

Discussion

Conclusion