Abstract

ABSTRACT Recent articles on intelligence theory have shown that guidelines for evaluating and expressing the quality of intelligence assessments are based on weak theoretical justifications and lack a proper theoretical foundation. Risk and intelligence analysts face similar issues related to understanding, assessing, and communicating threats and uncertainties. This article draws on risk science’s advances in evaluating the strength of the knowledge used in risk assessments. Using a fictitious arms trafficking case, we demonstrate the compatibility of a strength-of-knowledge approach to quality with the current understanding of confidence in intelligence studies. The aim is to show that risk science’s theoretical framework and formalized language is applicable to the evaluation of intelligence assessment quality as well as to intelligence theory in general. Implications for intelligence practice and research are discussed.

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