A Risk-Based Conceptual Design Method for Submarine Rescue Vehicle

Abstract

In order to reduce the risks and uncertainties in conceptual design of submarine rescue vehicle (SRV), the paper proposed a risk-based conceptual design method, which consisted of three focus areas: problem setup, risk assessment, risk mitigation and decision support. Conventional risk assessment tools (e.g. probability risk assessment) were not suited for initial design because of lack of data, and a safety analysis model using fuzzy-logic approach employing fuzzy IF-THEN rules was introduced to carry out risk analysis in conceptual design. Subsequently, it was investigated that the main risky factors which influenced system risk in initial design were technology level of SRV, safety of SRV, task complexity, investment and repayment. And then a risk analysis model for submarine rescue vehicle was introduced. Lastly a case was studied to demonstrate the application of the model, and the results showed that it was an effective way to reduce the risks and uncertainties in conceptual design process.