Abstract
AimsTo develop a risk assessment model for persons at risk from type 2 diabetes in Chinese.Materials and MethodsThe model was generated from the cross-sectional data of 16246 persons aged from 20 years old and over. C4.5 algorithm and multivariate logistic regression were used for variable selection. Relative risk value combined with expert decision constructed a comprehensive risk assessment for evaluating the individual risk category. The validity of the model was tested by cross validation and a survey performed six years later with some participants.ResultsNine variables were selected as risk variables. A mathematical model was established to calculate the average probability of diabetes in each cluster's group divided by sex and age. A series of criteria combined with relative RR value (2.2) and level of risk variables stratified individuals into four risk groups (non, low, medium and high risk). The overall accuracy reached 90.99% evaluated by cross-validation inside the model population. The incidence of diabetes for each risk group increased from 1.5 (non-risk group) to 28.2(high-risk group) per one thousand persons per year with six years follow-up.DiscussionThe model could determine the individual risk for type 2 diabetes by four risk degrees. This model could be used as a technique tool not only to support screening persons at different risk, but also to evaluate the result of the intervention.
Highlights
Type 2 diabetes is a worldwide public health problem resulting from both lifestyle and genetic factors
The model could determine the individual risk for type 2 diabetes by four risk degrees
This model could be used as a technique tool to support screening persons at different risk, and to evaluate the result of the intervention
Summary
Type 2 diabetes is a worldwide public health problem resulting from both lifestyle and genetic factors. A set of assessment methodologies, from the simple checking list to several risk score models, was developed in recent years, such as the Finnish Risk Score, Danish Diabetes Risk Score [2], ADA [3], Cambridge Risk Score [4], NHANESIII [5], DRC [6], Thailand Risk Score [7], Spanish Diabetes Risk Score [8] and so on [9,10] All these tools are helpful in the assessment of high risk and of persons with diabetes all over the world but only a few are developed in China [11,12].Considering the large number of individuals with prediabetes or at high-risk of diabetes in China [13], a tool, suitable for Chinese and with a high efficiency for dealing with the huge clinical data simultaneously in a precise way, is urgently needed
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