Abstract
Abstract. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can be affected by many risks. Those risks are related to different technical and non-technical aspects of recharge, like water availability, water quality, legislation, social issues, etc. Many other works have acknowledged risks of this nature theoretically; however, their quantification and definition has not been developed. In this study, the risk definition and quantification has been performed by means of “fault trees” and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). We defined a fault tree with 65 basic events applicable to the operation phase. After that, we have applied this methodology to six different managed aquifer recharge sites located in the Mediterranean Basin (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Malta, and Israel). The probabilities of the basic events were defined by expert criteria, based on the knowledge of the different managers of the facilities. From that, we conclude that in all sites, the perception of the expert criteria of the non-technical aspects were as much or even more important than the technical aspects. Regarding the risk results, we observe that the total risk in three of the six sites was equal to or above 0.90. That would mean that the MAR facilities have a risk of failure equal to or higher than 90 % in the period of 2–6 years. The other three sites presented lower risks (75, 29, and 18 % for Malta, Menashe, and Serchio, respectively).
Highlights
Water scarcity, the chronic lack of sufficient quality water to supply a specific area is one of the major global challenges
The results, presented as a box plot of all the values reported by categories, showed that the larger values of risk perceived corresponded to events classified as non-technical (Fig. 5)
We have developed a methodology to evaluate the risk of failure of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) facilities, and we have applied it to six different facilities located in the Mediterranean Basin
Summary
The chronic lack of sufficient quality water to supply a specific area is one of the major global challenges. In the Mediterranean Basin, due to low overall precipitation and a pronounced irregularity of rainfall events, it has direct impacts on economic sectors that depend on water, such as agriculture, tourism, and related industries (Fader et al, 2016; Maliva and Missimer, 2012; NavarroOrtega et al, 2012; Stanhill et al, 2015). The population in the Mediterranean area increased from 81 million in 1960 to 145 million in 2011 (European Environment Agency, 2015), placing additional stress upon existing water resources. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most sensitive regions of the world to climate changes resulting from human activities; according to the latest IPCC projections, average precipitation could decrease by more than. Rodriguez-Escales et al.: A risk assessment methodology in MAR
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
