A revised empirical model to estimate solar radiation using automated surface weather observations

Abstract

The transition from manual to automated weather observations at US National Weather Service Offices has compromised the ability to use these data as a means for estimating global horizontal and direct solar radiation. The creation of long term model-derived solar radiation climatologies continues to rely on the in situ cloud data that these observations provide, since homogeneous and readily available satellite data does not span the transition. An existing semi-physical solar radiation model is revised to allow for the estimation of hourly solar radiation based on these observations. Model evaluation reveals that errors in solar radiation estimates are comparable to other contemporary solar radiation models that estimate global horizontal solar radiation on both daily (10–15% mean absolute error) and hourly (15–19% mean absolute error) timescales. Hourly mean absolute errors are similar for different sky conditions, while daily percent errors are similar between seasons. Model updates also allow for accurate estimates of solar radiation in various climate regimes; regional patterns in model bias are not evident.