A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

Jaakko Kukkonen ,K E J Lehtinen,A Poupkou,E Reimer,M Sofiev,V Tarvainen,S Finardi,A Monteiro,Roberto San José ,Kostas Karatzas ,Ana Isabel Miranda ,Marina Astitha ,David M Schultz ,Marcus Hirtl ,Martijn Schaap ,Thomas Klein ,Ioannis Kioutsioukis ,Hermann Jakobs ,Ranjeet S Sokhi ,George Kallos ,Vincent‐Henri Peuch ,Alexander Baklanov ,Taru Olsson ,Michael Boy ,Kryštof Eben

doi:10.5194/acp-12-1-2012

Abstract

Abstract. Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated into chemical weather forecasting systems, how physical processes are incorporated into the models through parameterization schemes, how the model architecture affects the predicted variables, and how air chemistry and aerosol processes are formulated. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the models, user operational requirements, such as model availability and documentation, and output availability and dissemination. In this manner, this article allows for the evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various modelling systems and modelling approaches. Finally, this article highlights the most prominent gaps of knowledge for chemical weather forecasting models and suggests potential priorities for future research directions, for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles.

Highlights

Chemical weather is defined here as the short-term variability of the atmospheric chemical composition
EURODELTA: a regional-scale model intercomparison to analyse the responses of different chemical transport model (CTM) to emission changes/scenarios
Before a chemical weather forecasting (CWF) model can be used as an operational tool, model users should ensure that all the stages of the evaluation have been critically performed

Summary

Introduction

Chemical weather is defined here as the short-term (less than two weeks) variability of the atmospheric chemical composition. This definition is complementary to the traditional meteorological definition of weather, which is commonly characterized only by physical variables (e.g. temperature, wind, mass, radiation, humidity). Methods that include a combination of weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry simulations are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting (CWF). CWF can be seen as a specific category of air-quality forecasting, where air-quality forecasting models using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are CWF models, but air-quality forecasting models using statistical methods are not (Kukkonen et al, 2009c). We use some of these terms; “chemical transport models” is used to refer to the atmospheric chemistry simulations

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Results

Conclusion