Operational Chemical Weather Forecasting Models on a Regional Scale in Europe

Abstract

AbstractMethods that include a combination of weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry simulations are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting (CWF). We have selected 18 operational CWF models on regional and continental scales in Europe for a more detailed analysis. We have collected the information in a structured form, and inter-compared and evaluated the mathematical structure of these models. This information makes it possible to evaluate the relative advantages and limitations of the various modeling systems, modeling approaches and sub-models. We have also surveyed the most prominent gaps of knowledge in this field, and suggested potential priorities for future research directions. There are substantial gaps of knowledge, especially in the following fields: emission inventories, the availability and exchange of observations, the evaluation of the boundary conditions for the CWF models, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, the data assimilation of the various chemical species, the understanding of several chemical and physical processes, the construction of model ensembles, and the scientific evaluation of the CWF models, including their evaluation against data.KeywordsChemical weatherScientific model evaluationForecasting model