A review of evolving climate and energy economy trends to enhance the dynamic life cycle assessment of buildings

Abstract

The changing global climate is impacting life cycle effects of all sectors, including the building sector. To effectively decrease the construction sector's 40 % share of global annual energy use and carbon emissions, it's crucial to integrate these changes into life cycle assessments (LCA) to inform current and future energy policies, since buildings have lifespans exceeding 100 years. Current research lacks methods and data to embed future weather and energy shifts into LCA. This paper quantifies these future changes and discusses their integration into building LCA. Using industry reports and scholarly articles, we calculated global energy trends and weather patterns for 2030, 2050, and 2080. The projected energy use changes across United States economic sectors were also analyzed. Projections indicate a 41–59 % decline in fossil fuel use by 2050, with renewable energy increasing from 11 % to 41 %. Concurrently, global temperatures may rise by 2–5 °C, signaling major weather shifts. These shifts will translate into an economy-wide energy intensity decrease, showing an expected drop of 8 %. A Dynamic LCA (DLCA) framework is also discussed to include these shifts into LCA, to help not only researchers and practitioners involved in the LCA of buildings but also energy policy makers in effectively mitigating climate change.