A Resilience History of the Columbia River Basin and Salmonid Species: Regimes and Policies

Abstract

We view the history of the Columbia River Basin through a resilience lens from the point of view of salmonids, as keystone species for the river basin ecosystems and social systems. We rely on the concept of multiple stable states as depicted in a stability landscape, as a scientific theory, but equally as a metaphor and a mental model. Using evidence-based plausibility arguments concerning the existence, creation, and potential critical transitions between regimes, we describe change over centuries. We argue that a critical transition occurred taking the state of the system from its historic regime into a novel regime stabilized by new social feedbacks and institutional configurations. By using a state space defined by four variables used in policy deliberations for salmon recovery we tie our results to historical and contemporary management issues. Knowledge of (a) which regime is currently occupied and (b) which critical transitions between regimes are possible are both crucial to effective policy formation. We draw distinctions between positions held by federal agencies, tribal agencies, and civil society organizations as to the current state of affairs and policy recommendations, raising questions about the appropriate use of decision support systems in the public process for decision making.