A reseach on the Measurement and Trend Forecasting of Digital Economy Development in Cities along the "Belt and Road"

Abstract

With the acceleration of global integration, in order to enhance the level of information modernization, optimization of resource allocation and improve the level of high-quality development of China's economy under the new pattern, it is of great significance to measure and forecast the level of digital economy development in the perspective of "One Belt and One Road". Based on this, this paper firstly constructed a digital economy development evaluation index system consisting of five potential factors, including digital economy environment, digital industry development, digital infrastructure, industrial digital development and digital innovation level. Then, considering the information quantity, volatility and relevance of each evaluation index, this paper chose the combination of entropy and CRITIC method to quantify the five potential factors and calculated the digital economy development level based on TOPSIS method. Then, k-means clustering and grey-scale models were used to analyse the spatial and temporal clustering and forecast the development level of the digital economy in each region. The empirical results show that the development trend of digital economy in cities along China's "One Belt, One Road" has been steadily increasing, but the balance of the digital economy development level of each city still needs to be improved. The growth rate of the digital economy is more pronounced in coastal cities than inland cities. Finally, suggestions are made to improve the quality construction of "One Belt, One Road" and the balance of digital economy development in China.