A remaining useful life prediction framework with adaptive dynamic feedback

Abstract

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of components is a crucial aspect of mechanical systems prognostic and health management. However, during the online RUL prediction of components, the existing method cannot use the prediction results for feedback and optimize the prediction model. To address this issue, this paper proposes a framework for RUL prediction with adaptive dynamic feedback. First, a feedback multi-feature fusion (FMFF) method is designed. It introduces a series of non-exceeding threshold positive constants, that is fraction thresholds (FT), to perform division of the degradation state dimension. Besides, the first hitting time (FHT) from the current moment to FT is the fraction remaining useful life (FRUL). It is used to construct and update the fusion factors. Then, the feedback multi-model selection (FMMS) method is proposed for adaptive feedback and to select the degradation model based on the FRUL prediction results in different stages. The probability density function of RUL based on the FHT is calculated based on the FMMS method to realize the RUL prediction of the component. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework are validated based on XJTU-SY dataset and run-to-failure test.