A reliability growth projection model based on similar failure mechanisms

Abstract

Reliability growth test is a common method to evaluate complex electromechanical systems in mechanical engineering. Reliability growth models are usually used to predict the reliability index of systems after the reliability test. AMSAA (army materials systems analysis activity) projection-model-stein (APMS) model is widely used for delayed corrective strategy, since it only requires limited assumptions but covers all failure data. However, there is a controversy about whether the Stein factor introduced in this model is reasonable. To alleviate the problem, an APMS development model is presented in this paper, because different types of parts have different inherent failure mechanisms. The study showed the projection results of the proposed model are credible. Moreover the Stein shrinkage factors were more reasonable and acceptable, as they were derived from the components with similar inherent failure mechanisms. These provide a technical foundation for the wide application of the proposed model.