A reliability analysis method for rock slope controlled by weak structural surface

Abstract

Catastrophic landslides maybe occur in rock slope due to the effect of strong earthquakes or heavy rainfall. The stability of rock slope is usually controlled by different scales of weak structural surfaces, which are uncertain and randomly exist in the rock slope. According to the geological characteristics of rock slope, two typical failure modes – plane and wedge are possible. A second-order second-moment (SOSM) method is presented to calculate the reliability index and the failure probability of rock slope, which is an improvement over the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method, and performance functions are built up with the classic limit equilibrium method. The presented method is applied to analyze the failure probability of two rock slopes at the Jinping I Hydropower Station and is compared with the Monte Carlo method and the FOSM method. The computed results show that for plane failure, the reliability index and the failure probability determined by the presented method are 0.563 and 28.7%, respectively, and the reliability index and the failure probability determined by Monte Carlo method are 0.677 and 24.9%, respectively. However, for the FOSM method, the reliability index and failure probability are –0.025 and 51.0%, respectively. For both plane failure and wedge failure, the difference between the presented method and the Monte Carlo method is very small, but the failure probability of plane failure determined by FOSM method is larger than that of the other two methods. The presented method can provide a useful tool to evaluate the failure probability of rock slope.