A Region-Dependent Seasonal Forecasting Framework for Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the Western North Pacific

Abstract

ABSTRACT It has been a common practice to predict total tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the entire western North Pacific (WNP). Here we show that TC genesis (TCG) exhibits distinct regional variability and sources of predictability. Therefore, we divide the WNP into four quadrants with 140°E and 17°N being dividing lines plus the South China Sea (SCS) to predict five subregional TCG frequencies as well as the entire WNP TCG frequency. Besides the well-known ENSO-induced seesaw relationship between the TCGs in the southeast and northwest quadrants, we found that 1) an enhanced TCG in the northeast WNP is associated with a pronounced anomalous cyclonic circulation, which is maintained through its interaction with the underlying sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies; 2) an active TCG in the southwest WNP is accompanied by a zonally elongated positive vorticity anomaly and SST warming over the equatorial eastern Pacific; and 3) the SCS TCG is influenced by the upper-level South Asia high through modulating large-scale environmental parameters. Physically meaningful predictors are identified and a set of empirical prediction models for TCG frequency is established for each subregion. Both the cross-validated reforecast for 1965–2000 and independent forecast for 2001–16 show significant temporal correlation skills. Moreover, the sum of the predicted TCG frequency in five subregions yields a basinwide TCG frequency prediction with a temporal correlation skill of 0.76 for the independent forecast period of 2001–16. The results indicate its potential utility to improve the TC forecasting in the WNP.