A regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model using CMA-TRAMS and LICOM: Preliminary results for tropical cyclone gale prediction over the northern South China Sea

Abstract

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the performance of a high-resolution regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model in predicting tropical cyclone (TC) gales over the northern South China Sea. The atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled system are represented by the China Meteorological Administration's Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea (CMA-TRAMS) and the LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model (LICOM), respectively. The Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil VersionH 3 (OASIS3) software has been utilized for the exchange of momentum, heat, and freshwater fluxes between these two components. An assessment of the coupled model's three-day predictions for five TCs’ gales was conducted. Preliminary findings indicate that the predicted TC tracks show less sensitivity to oceanic influences than the predicted TC intensities. Significant improvement in predicting the surface TC gales has been achieved through coupling the ocean model. This improvement is attributed to the impact of the warmer ocean's effect on TC intensification, counteracting the cooling effect of the cold wake. In summary, coupling has enhanced the model's predictive capabilities for TC gales. A detailed assessment of the coupled model's performance in predicting other tropical weather phenomena is forthcoming.摘要本文对一个具有我国自主知识产权的高分辨率区域海气耦合模式在南海北部台风大风预报性能进行对比分析. 该耦合模式的大气和海洋部分分别为中国气象局南海台风模式 (CMA-TRAMS) 和中国科学院大气物理研究所的海洋模式 (LICOM), 并用OASIS耦合器实现海气界面动量, 热量和淡水通量的交换. 本文对海气耦合模式预报5个台风的24, 48和72小时大风的性能进行了检验评估. 初步结果表明, 预报的台风路径对海洋影响的敏感性低于台风强度. 耦合模式使预报台风大风的准确性得到显著提高, 这一改进归结于海气耦合模式更为准确的海表温度对台风增强的影响, 从而抵消了冷尾流的降温效应. 总而言之, 耦合模式增强了模式对台风大风的预报能力. 关于海气耦合模式在其他热带天气中的预报能力评估将在未来工作中展示.