A quantitative approach to socio-political tension in Russia 1895-1913

Abstract

The paper is an attempt to study socio-politi cal conflict in czarist Russia using the combined tech niques of static and dynamic analyses under certain eco nomic and political parameters. The study used multip le variables to measure SPT (Socio-Political Tension) for the period from 1895 to 1913, both for the empire as a whole and for the 49 Governements West of the Urals. In our study, a model of SPT was constructed that has the potential for giving us more precise ideas about the causes of political stability. Chronological cluster ana lysis was shown to be useful in generating a typology of different periods of revolutionary movement in Russia and also permitted the mapping of variables at the re gional level. A database was gathered that can be used for further analysis. Some correlations were revealed that were previously unknown to scholars of revolutio nary movements in Russia. Quantitative studies of interior socio-political conflict began not very long ago. These studies became possible as a result of recent theoretical work. (1) Specific studies have appeared that deal with concrete problems in agrarian (2) and industrial (3) developments, as well as the history of labor movements (4). The appearance of these studies in the USSR is connected with studies of internal socio-political tension (SPT) in other parts of the world, particularly American studies of socio-economic and socio-political processes. Several methodological approaches have been tried, and a wide spectrum of topics have been explored, such as: work on the comparative analysis of revolutions (5), on scales of intensity of conflicts (6), inter relation of domestic and international conflicts (7), different static models of internal conflict in specific countries (8). Nevertheless, some American historians hold the opinion that there are problems which have yet to be explored. One of the leading historians in * Address all communications to: Boris I. Grekov, K. F. Shatsillo, Insti tute of General History, Moscow 117036, Ul. Dm. Uljanova, USSR.