A proposed probabilistic seismic tsunami hazard analysis methodology

Abstract

We expand on existing probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) approaches by presenting a methodology wherein the epistemic uncertainties associated with tsunami timing, generation, and propagation are separated from aleatory uncertainties. The contributions of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties to the overall uncertainty in tsunami hazard are evaluated through a two-level Monte Carlo analysis. The total epistemic uncertainty contribution defines the variance of the tsunami inundation hazard distribution. Through Bayesian inference, the available catalog of tsunami runup data is used to refine the hazard estimate, where the prior distribution is weighted by epistemic uncertainties. The general PTHA framework is further modified to include a hazard function accounting for peak water elevation, velocity, duration of inundation, and warning time. We carry out a formal sensitivity analysis of the tsunami generation and propagation on the feasible model parameter space using the multi-objective generalized sensitivity analysis algorithm. Parameters showing a significant influence on tsunami hazard include the tidal elevation, moment magnitude (M w), the Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) distribution β parameter, epicenter location, and the rake angle. Parameters showing minimal influence on tsunami hazard include the G–R maximum seismic moment magnitude (M max) parameter, strike angle, dip angle, seismic depth and Manning’s roughness. As a proof of concept, the methodology is applied to a case study of tsunami hazard posed to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Station 9411406 (Oil Platform Harvest, CA, USA) by seismic sources along the Aleutian Islands, AK.