Abstract
One to three years anticipation of monthly and weakly peak demand are required to: prepare maintenance schedules, develop power pooling agreements, select peaking capacity and provide data required certain reliability coordinating centers. The total monthly forecast of the maximum demand (m.d.) is deduced and computed along the future three years till April 1981. This is accomplished for a one of vital important electrical network in EGYPT. The anticipation is executed for El-Mehalla El-Kubra City network has an industrial and residential daily load characteristics Direct monthly m.d. forecasting is executed by separate treatment of non-weather (NW) and weather-induced (W) DEMAND. The forecast required is derived through this paper by two methodologies: the probabilistic extrapolation – correlation and that suggested by the authors Date collected for our work is the daily and monthly data for more reliable determination of weather load models. Complete analysis, discussions and comments on the results are exhibited. An entire comparison reveals an acceptable and reasonable percentage error obtained on applying the proposed methodology.
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