Abstract
One to three years' anticipation of monthly and weekly peak demand is required to prepare maintenance schedules, develop power pooling agreements, select peaking capacity and provide data required by certain reliability coordinating centers. A total monthly forecast of the maximum demand is deduced and computed for the three years up to April 1981. This is accomplished for an important electrical network in Egypt. The anticipated maximum demand is executed for El-Mehalla El-Kubra city network. This network has an industrial and residential daily load characteristic. Direct monthly maximum demand forecasting is executed by separate treatment of weather-independent and weather-induced demand. The required forecast is derived by two methodologies: the probabilistic extrapolation-correlation, and that suggested by the authors. Daily and monthly data have been collected for more reliable determination of weather load models. Complete analysis, discussion and comments on the results are presented, and the results compared. This comparison reveals that an acceptable and reasonable percentage error is obtained on applying the proposed methodology.
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