Abstract
e16762 Background: Wide survival difference of pancreatic cancer in the same TNM stage had been demonstrated. Predictive nomogram for resected pancreatic cancer had been published before, but the impact of adjuvant chemotherapy was not incorporated, and the data of Asian people were lacking. We also evaluated the effect of adjuvant chemotherapy in different risk groups according to our nomogram. Methods: Pancreatic cancer patients who underwent curative surgery between 2000/1 and 2013/12 were collected from the Cancer Registry of NTUH as the training cohort. Another cohort from CGMH was studied as the validation cohort. Analyses were performed by IBM SPSS version 21.0. Age, gender, primary tumor location, tumor differentiation, LVI, PNI, T, N, AJCC 7th stage, section margin, and adjuvant chemotherapy were used for univariate and multivariate analysis. Nomogram was built and validated by software R 3.6.1. C-index was used to demonstrate the performance and discrimination ability of nomogram. Results: There were 319 and 245 patients in NTUH and CGMH cohorts. The R0 resection rates were 80.6 and 71.8%, and 24.5 and 63.7% of patients received adjuvant chemotherapy. Median OS were 16.9 and 15.7 months in NTUH and CGMH. AJCC 7th Stage, tumor differentiation, section margin, tumor location, LVI and receiving adjuvant chemotherapy were incorporated in the nomogram. C-index in NTUH cohort was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.62-0.70), which was higher then C-index of AJCC 7th Stage, 0.58 (95% CI: 0.54-0.61). The C-index in the CGMH was 0.65 (95% CI: 0.60-0.69). We grouped the two cohorts into low, medium, and high risk groups according to the nomogram score. In NTUH, there were 50, 208, and 48 patients in the low, medium, and high risk groups. In CGHM, there were 37, 156, and 45 patients in those groups. The Kaplan-Meier curves of OS separated nicely according to different risk groups (log rank p < 0.001). If excluding adjuvant chemotherapy in nomogram, C-index in NTUH was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.59-0.67) and 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58-0.66) in CGMH by the new nomogram. The relative survival hazard ratios of receiving adjuvant chemotherapy were 0.532, 0.626, and 0.358 in high, medium and low risk groups of NTUH and were 0.624, 0.798, and 0.788 in CGMH. Conclusions: The new nomogram with more clinical factors than TNM stage has better prognostic prediction. We add the impact of adjuvant chemotherapy into our predictive model. Adjuvant chemotherapy is important in resected pancreatic cancer, even in low risk population.
Published Version
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