Abstract
Understanding the distribution and productivity of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) under climate change is critical given the ecological and economic importance of the species. Recently, process-based growth models have grown in their popularity given their simplicity and data availability, and they are increasingly being used to map the distribution and productivity of tree species. In this paper, we study the extent of variation of the current range shift and the productivity of the species under a changing climate. We used the Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth (3-PG) model, which calculates the extent to which climatic variables affect photosynthesis and growth of a species. These variables were then used in a decision-tree model to develop rules to provide a basis for predicting the distribution of the species under current climatic conditions. Once the distribution model was developed the productivity of the species was then assessed. Using climate projections we then simulated the growth and distribution into the future. Results indicate a northward shift from the current range. The growth model also indicates minor increases in productivity in some of the existing distribution areas, principally in central China with limited productivity predicted in newly emerged stands. We conclude that this dual modeling approach has potential to quantify impacts of climate change on selected species and examining differences in climate projections on range and productivity estimation.
Highlights
Across China, plantations of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook) and Masson Pine (Pinus massoniana) have been utilized for more than one thousand years [1,2,3]
Our research is focused on southern, sub-tropic region of China (Figure 1) where the current distribution of Chinese fir extends from the pacific coast of Fujian, Zhejiang in the east, to the south coast of Guangdong and Guangxi, to the west of Yunnan, Sichuan, to the north of Shanxi and Henan Provinces
The results indicate that the most important modifiers that impact the distribution of the species are fall vapor pressure deficit, winter temperature, and winter soil water
Summary
Across China, plantations of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook) and Masson Pine (Pinus massoniana) have been utilized for more than one thousand years [1,2,3]. Understanding the distribution and productivity of the species both and into the future is critical, when linked to local management strategies, such as silvicultural practices, as it provides an estimate of the commercial value of the species, timber supply, and assessment of the other ecosystem goods and services the species provides. Climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation strongly affect the physiology of a tree species [16,17], and as a result, changes in climate are likely to alter both the distribution and growth of the species in the future. Utilizing a hybrid model, which allows the prediction of variables of key interest to forest managers, such as stand volume and basal area—the growth potential of future forest plantations can be spatially and temporally assessed
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