A probabilistic method for structural integrity assurance based on damage detection structural health monitoring data

Abstract

The value of using permanently installed monitoring systems for managing the life of an engineering asset is determined by the confidence in its damage detection capabilities. A framework is proposed that integrates detection data from permanently installed monitoring systems with probabilistic structural integrity assessments. Probability of detection (POD) curves are used in combination with particle filtering methods to recursively update a distribution of postulated defect size given a series of negative results (i.e. no defects detected). The negative monitoring results continuously filter out possible cases of severe damage, which in turn updates the estimated probability of failure. An implementation of the particle filtering method that takes into account the effect of systematic uncertainty in the detection capabilities of a monitoring system is also proposed, addressing the problem of whether negative measurements are simply a consequence of defects occurring outside the sensors field of view. A simulated example of fatigue crack growth is used to demonstrate the proposed framework. The results demonstrate that permanently installed sensors with low susceptibility to systematic effects may be used to maintain confidence in fitness-for-service while relying on fewer inspections. The framework provides a method for using permanently installed sensors to achieve continuous assessments of fitness-for-service for improved integrity management.